Smart Grid 2012- Making Sense of All the Predictions

Over the last few days I collected 8 different sets of predictions for the smart grid market in 2012.  No doubt there are more out there.  These sets incorporate 51 different trends, some similar and some unique.  I’ve identified the various authors at the bottom of this piece.  Distilling these entries into more meaningful groups results in: trends with some consensus; trends common to more than one expert; unique perspectives; and conflicting opinions. And while my population sample may not be statistically significant, none of them picked up on a big one, discussed below.

Trends with some consensus

  1. Participants will begin to identify new benefits from focused data analytic programs and analysis: the sheer volume and potential value will drive significant utility investments in this area. (5)
  2. Distribution Automation investments will dominate. (4)

Trends common to more than one expert

  1. Demand response programs accelerate. (3)
  2. Grid scale battery systems will see significant cost reductions and commercial deployments. (3)
  3. Smart Buildings will see greater investment and utility interest. (3)
  4. Market consolidations, mergers and acquisitions continue. (3)
  5. Attention on cybersecurity and risk will increase by policymakers and market participants. (3)
  6. Prepaid Electricity will emerge as a new service. (2)

Unique perspectives

  • More progress on smart grid standards.
  • Excess renewable generation will become a problem.
  • Demand will flatten or even fall.
  • Federal government cuts back R&D and funding.
  • Constant reinvention of business models will occur as smart grid market matures.
  • Municipals and coops will drive new AMI deployments.
  • Cellular systems are coming on strong.

Conflicted opinions:

  • Electric vehicles will gain traction (2); year to make or break a market (1); backburnered (1).
  • Solar PV growth will moderate (1); solar PV growth will be greater than 25%

A missing trend: Growth of customer engagement services

What is interesting to me is the fact that none of these sets of predictions flagged a very important trend: the emergence of customer engagement services.  There is a pervasive attitude that the average customer does not care about energy management, an attitude that is probably correct if all a customer is given is a lot of statistics.  If meaningful insight is provided, insight that the average customer can understand and use, the picture is quite different.  And some utilities have begun to take notice.

The origins of the trends I paraphrased above were:

Jesse Berst, “Top 9 predictions for 2012” SmartGridNews.com, http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Delivery_Distribution_Automation/Top-9-predictions-for-2012-4297.html

Heather Clancy, “3 smart-grid trends to watch in 2012” ZDNet, http://www.zdnet.com/blog/green/3-smart-grid-trends-to-watch-in-2012/19793

Katie Fehrenbacher, “The top 10 trends from the year’s big smart grid show” gigacom, http://gigaom.com/cleantech/the-top-10-trends-from-the-years-big-smart-grid-show/

Chris King, “2012 Smart Grid Predictions” AolEnergy, http://energy.aol.com/2011/12/23/2012-smart-grid-predictions/

Donald Rickey, “Smart Grid Trends to Watch for in 2012” The Daily Energy Report, http://www.dailyenergyreport.com/2012/01/smart-grid-trends-to-watch-for-in-2012/

Rob Wilhite, “Three Smart Grid predictions for 2012” KEMA Blog, http://smartgridsherpa.com/blog/three-smart-grid-predictions-for-2012

Electric Light & Power “2012 to bring more smart grid, less government support” http://www.elp.com/index/kathleens-blog/blogs/elp-blogs/elp-blogs/post987_8949654131467600628.html

IDC Energy Insights, “North America Utility Industry Top 10 Predictions 2012” webinar December 6, 2011 http://www.idc.com/research/Predictions12/IDCInsightsPredictionsWebcasts/Predictions12.jsp

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